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The Chess Column 02 Jul 1972, Sun The Sacramento Bee (Sacramento, California) Newspapers.com
Cognoscenti and aficionados of chess have tried every which way to assess Bobby Fischer's chances against Boris Spassky in the championship match scheduled to begin today in Reykjavik, Iceland.
No one, however, has made a statistical-historical analysis of championship confrontation.
Since the first world challenge match in 1872, challengers have been successful in only 11 of 28 attempts, or 40 per cent of the time. Moreover, only three challengers succeeded in even-numbered years (1894, 1958, 1960) and three for 11 is a dismal winning percentage of little more than 27 per cent.
The only other US competitor for the championship, Frank J. Marshall, failed in 1907 (zero percentage); no English-speaking chess player has ever worn the world crown (also zero per cent); and only citizens of the Soviet Union have won since World War II (100 per cent success).
Admittedly, Fischer's chance seem dim in this light.
There is a bright side. The world champion has lost six of the last seven matches, beginning in 1958, for a losing percentage of 86 per cent.
What does this statistical historical analysis mean?
Nothing, of course.
Luckily, history is irrelevant and statistics are meaningless. All analysis is confounded by psychology and bows to genius.
The world chess championship is a relatively recent competition — only since 1948 has there been a standard and accepted method of determining the champion — and is still limited to those who play European or Western chess.
If Fischer wins, he will join a pantheon of chess immortals whose names ought to be familiar to all those interested in chess.
The champions, the years of their reign, and the countries they represented, are: Wilhelm Steinitz, 1866-1894; Austria-Hungary; Emmanuel Lasker, 1894-1921, Germany; Jose Raul Capablanca, 1921-27, Cuba; Alexander Alekhine, 1927-35 and 1937-46 France, and Max Euwe, 1935-37.
In 1948 a tournament was organized by the international chess federation to find a successor to Alekhine. Every champion since then has been a Soviet citizen: Mikhail Botvinnik, 1948-57, 1958-60 and 1961-63; Vassily Smyslov, 1957-58; Mikhail Tal, 1960-61; Tigran Petrosian, 1963-69; and Spassky, 1969 to the present.
